I’ll tell you where. Someplace warm. A place where the beer flows like wine. Where the beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano. I’m talking about a little place called Daily Fantasy Sports.
Many have been enchanted by the idea of Daily Fantasy Sports. Places where someone can seemingly turn a dollar entry into a million. Sites like FanDuel and DraftKings lure in people by the thousands promising fame and glory. It’s alluring to those whose yearly fantasy seasons have gone the way of the dodo. It’s enticing for those of whom are looking for a more hands-on version of the lottery. It’s addictive for those who never quite regained that fix they had that harkened back to before Black Friday when the U.S. Supreme Court went “Old Testament” on Online Gambling sites.
Well, in the next few weeks, we’re going to delve into the Daily Fantasy Football sites of both FanDuel and DraftKings to pan for gold amongst the deep player pools. Roster construction tips and strategy think-tank will come in future articles. For now, we dive head-on in to values found on both sites.
DraftKings
QB Values:
Mark Sanchez vs CAR $5,400 – Ole butt fumble himself will probably be everyone’s favorite value play at QB. The cap Space that he frees up with the rest of your roster is incredible. Good matchup, great scheme, low pricing… can’t ask for much more than that. He’ll be on a good portion of my DFS rosters this week. I inquired to Mark Stopa of rotowire as to what Sanchez’s ownership may be this week. He estimated no more than 15% due to the stigma with his name value. Music to my ears.
Zach Mettenberger @ BAL $5,800 – I don’t love the kid, but in his first start, he showed us he can go deep and does grasp the offense. Not an optimal start going to Baltimore, but his price is very affordable.
RB Values:
LeSean McCoy vs CAR $5,600 – Averaging over the century mark in ground yardage the past four weeks, he’s just been allergic to the end zone this season. Chris Polk sniped one from him last week. Carolina’s last in the league in giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs, and the line is finally getting healthy. There’s no way he should be out of the top-5 RBs on DraftKings this week, but he is. I’ll have a healthy dose of Shady on my rosters this week.
Tre Mason @ ARI $3,800 – The tea leaves are saying that Mason will be THE guy in the Rams backfield from here going forward. Fisher keeps claiming otherwise. A source in the organization told me it’s Mason’s job to lose now. Arizona is a terrible matchup, coming off the first week a team has kept DeMarco Murray under 100 yards on the ground. However, can beggars be choosers when you’re targeting a guy with the lions share of a team’s carries at a basement level price? Surely, he has the potential to fall in the end-zone a couple of times, even if the yardage isn’t there. Highest upside for a guy that likely will be rostered sparingly across the field.
Bryce Brown vs KC $3,700 – A total punt play for a guy that could have huge upside if he gets the carries. Reports are that Fred Jackson is back (limited) at practice on Wednesday, so keep an eye out there on if his groin injury magically eclipsed his month-long time-table by two weeks. Is he really 33 years-old? Someone check the birth certificate. If F-Jax plays, Brown won’t even be a good punt play.
WR Values:
Julio Jones @ TB $6,600 – Struggling superstar. Juicy matchup and pricing. Don’t over-think it.
Brandon Marshall @ GB $5,600 – He still leads all Bears WR in targets with 8.2 per game, though he doesn’t lead the team, that honor goes to Matt Forte at 8.8 … He’s simply too good to keep down and with his red-zone usage, he’ll have a multi-touchdown game sooner rather than later. Could be a chance for some solid garbage time production in this game as well.
Eric Decker vs PIT $4,900 – Decker is in the top six in WR receiving TDs since 2011. Not all of those were from Peyton Manning, yeah we’re looking at you, Tim Tebow. With teams having to focus a little more on Harvin, I actually think he’s a solid play in spite of whomever is at QB. TD probability is huge in DFS, and Decker is perpetually underrated in that department.
Kelvin Benjamin @ PHI $4,200 – HUGE VALUE ALERT! Only had two catches last week but had a healthy ten targets. This Philly secondary has been torched by many teams this year. This could be a huge bounce-back game for the big Rookie and the value is ridiculous. His price inexplicably fell $2,400 from last week (more than any other player). I’ll be surprised if he’s not the highest-owned player on DraftKings by a wide-margin. The kind of guy I’ll be playing in a lot of 50/50 leagues where I’m trying to cash in the top 50% of the player pool, but I may fade him in the GPP entries where I’m trying to be contrarian to the field in order to gain an edge.
Davante Adams vs CHI $3,800 – Four straight games with at least 70 yards or a TD. Played a season high 96% of the teams snaps in his last matchup at New Orleans. Green Bay runs more 3 WR sets than any team in the league. Elevator on this cheap price will go straight up next week if he has a big game against this porous secondary.
TE Values:
Julius Thomas @ OAK $4,900 – Great pricing for a guy that can always provide TDs in droves.
Larry Donnell @ SEA $4,400 – Seattle allows very little TE yardage, but also has given up 10 TDs to opposign TEs. Whenever the Giants have not had their big-3 WRs on the field this season together (Cruz, Randle, OBJ), Donnell has been the red zone threat. He’s a top-5 play at a basement level price. He’ll be on most of my rosters.
D/ST Values:
Broncos @ OAK $3,300 – Follow vegas. 10 point differential should be higher in my book, and blowouts are always good for Fantasy Defenses.
Seattle vs NYG $3,000 - I know the “Legion of Boom” hasn’t been itself this season, but they’re rounding into form. You may never see them cheaper than this at home vs. a turnover prone team.
One of my DraftKings Rosters:
FanDuel
QB Values:
Ben Roethlisberger @NYJ $8,300 – reasonable price for a guy that’s coming off an all-time record of 12 TD passes in 2 games. I don’t love his home/road splits, but this offense is clicking right now.
Carson Palmer vs STL $7,900 – so many weapons and has been remarkably consistent when playing. The nerve issues in the shoulder look to be behind him. Janoris Jenkins and others in the STL secondary are banged up.
Colin Kaepernick @NO $7,500 – bounce back game against a team that will not sack him eight times, like the Rams did last week. The make shift O-line will be fine against the Saints mediocre defensive front and he’ll get more usage if Brees gets on a roll early in the Superdome. Garbage time counts too, just ask Eli Manning owners from Monday night.
Joe Flacco vs TEN $7,200 – Purely a price play. Flacco has 7 TDs in his last 3 home games, and Tennessee is in shambles right now.
Mark Sanchez vs CAR $6,600 – See Note Above.
RB Values:
Eddie Lacy vs CHI $7,900 – Highest over/under in vegas. Tasty matchup. Arrow’s been pointing upward for weeks and Lacy distanced himself from Starks in the New Orleans game before the bye. One week very soon, Lacy’s going to have a 100+ yard, 2 TD performance. Could be this week.
LeSean McCoy vs CAR $7,700 – See Note Above.
Bobby Rainey vs ATL $6,700 – If Charles Sims and/or Doug Martin are active, this play becomes less enticing. But even if they are, Rainey’s still likely earned more trust from Lovie Smith after last week. If only they hadn’t gotten away from him in the second half, he could have had a great fantasy day instead of a good one.
Tre Mason @ARI $5,400 - Zac Stacy is $6,200 on Fanduel. That’s how much of a mess this backfield has been. Trust Mason as a good punt play. See Note Above.
Bryce Brown vs KC $5,200 – See Note Above.
WR Values:
Jordy Nelson vs CHI $8,500 – He faced off against Keenan Lewis last week to the tune of just 5 targets and 25 total yards. He still is averaging 9.8 targets per game for the season… Expect big things this week against the Chicago secondary. In chasing points and targets, there’s no better play in all of fantasy sports this week.
Julio Jones @ TB $8,000 – See Note Above.
Kelvin Benjamin @ PHI $6,700 – The pricing’s nowhere near as good as it is on DraftKings, but he’s still a value. See Note Above.
Eric Decker vs PIT $6,400 – See Note Above.
Torrey Smith vs TEN $5,900 – Caught another TD last week, and the Flacco splits apply to his receivers too. A good boom/bust type player at a solid price.
Kenny Britt @ ARI $5,500 – Simply a team’s number one WR at a value price.
Davante Adams vs CHI $5,200 – See Note Above.
TE Values:
Larry Donnell @SEA $5,300 – See Note Above.
Kicker Values:
Shayne Graham vs SF $4,600 – Should be a top-12 kicker this week that you have to scroll all the way down to even find in the player pool. You don’t save much money by value-playing kickers, but you can make your roster more anti-fragile for tournament play.
D/ST Values:
Steelers @NYJ $5,000 – Banged up secondary with neither Palamalu nor Shamarko manning their safety slots, but Vick is banged up too and Vick or Geno or whatever Joe Schmo they have under center is liable to turn over the ball… a lot. As Drew Bledsoe recently said, “Going to play quarterback for the Jets … it’s kind of like, you know when they used to take the pretty young virgin up to the edge of the volcano and then just throw them in?”
One of my FanDuel Rosters:
You can follow Logan on twitter @NotFakeFantasy
